Where are real estate prices headed?
Saturday, March 28th, 2009
One way to determine if prices are headed up or down is to watch the supply of inventory. A balance market has five to six months of supply. Monthly supply is determined by the number of homes sold in a given month divided by the number of homes on the market. For example, if there are 1000 homes on the market in your area and 200 sold in a month there would be 5 months of inventory. Based on this finding, prices would be holding steady.
If there was less then 5-6 months of inventory you would be in a seller’s market and prices would climb. With a low supply of available homes, buyers would have to outbid each other to get the home. This is what drives inflation.
It there was more then 6 months of inventory you would be in a buyer’s market and prices would drop. With an abundance of homes available, seller’s would have to compete with each other causing prices to fall.
Economical factors can also play into which direction home prices go. According to Realtor.org, ”Traditionally, the national average sales price of a home is two-and-a-half times the average household income.” During the boom in the real estate market this reached four times the average income. With unemployment rising, prices may drop more to get us closer to the traditional average. But the good news is we are getting closer to the two-and-a-half time average.